National Bank of Belarus as of today actually announced the devaluation of its currency, the ruble in releasing the free swimming. On May 11th in the country were lifted all restrictions on buying and selling foreign currency in the cash market.
The Belarusian Central Bank stressed that the measure is aimed at stabilizing the situation in the domestic foreign exchange market and the ultimate goal - the implementation plan for phasing out single in the Belarusian ruble. However, experts are not so optimistic in their view, the devaluation will lead to higher prices, a deficit of goods and the shock on the market.
Beginning of the End.
In fact, the currency crisis in Belarus began several months ago. Back in March the country's citizens, alarmed by rumors of a possible devaluation and the collapse of the national economy, began to actively get rid of the BLR, buying dollars, Euros, Russian rubles, and even gold. Such a high demand for foreign currency shortages provoked her. As a result, the Central Bank was forced to lift restrictions on the interbank market, which led to a jump in the dollar on the interbank market until 5000-6000 Br and enhance the black market sellers of currencies: dollars, euros and Russian rubles can be bought from speculators, but a 40-50 % higher .
The decision to abandon a 10-percent corridor on the interbank market regulator explained the intent to make education policy more transparent and market - the more liquid and a full. At the same time it was planned soon to introduce multiple courses of the Belarusian ruble, which would be installed in the main auction, based on the proposals in the framework of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings.
Contrary to the hopes of the Belarusian authorities, this measure may not lead to anything: a shortage of currency worsened the republic and the government simply had no choice but to announce the lifting of all restrictions, as required, and the market. As the Deputy Head of Department of Finance ' Investkafe ' Alexander Lozova, even before the official rate of Belarusian ruble against the dollar amounted to 3037 rubles. / USD. ' At the same time the Belarusian banks in the interbank market to sell foreign currency to exporters at 60-70 % more expensive - in 4800-5150 the Belarusian rubles to the dollar ' - says expert. 
A number of commercial banks rather quickly reacted to the statement by the National Bank, setting a new exchange rates. In particular, most exchange offices established in Minsk in the course of the interval 3990-4000 the Belarusian rubles to the dollar. However, even this little course with reality. According to unofficial information, the current rates are associated with a ' request ' the regulator does not set them above the level of 4000 rubles.
Following the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against the National Bank made a pitiful attempt to keep the inevitable inflation by raising interest rates once in percentage points - from 13 to 14%. By mid-April, inflation in the country amounted to 8.7%, already exceeding the planned level for the year at 8.5 %. ' Raising the refinancing rate and, respectively, and the interest rate on deposits will increase protection against devaluation of ruble deposits, increase their profitability, but will also help stimulate the flow of funds into banks. This is a positive impact on expanding the resource base of financial institutions and their ability to meet public demand and the enterprises for banking services ... 
Belarus will save only a miracle.
However, most experts agree that even a currency devaluation will not save the country from collapse: to stabilize the foreign exchange market, the team needed a miracle of Alexander Lukashenko, who has no. The main problem, according to market participants, is that there is simply no foreign currency. ' Cash currency in exchange offices, and there is little it can not buy. That is, individuals in it ( the measures ) are not affected in any way. Exchangers simply overwrite the price tags, but there is a currency was not, and will not ... Lozova. 
Confirms these fears, and he National Bank, who said today that he still will not sell the currency to commercial banks for exchange offices. ' The National Bank will not sell the currency, and touch its gold reserves. Banks will be able to buy currency for exchange offices or on the stock exchange or the OTC market ...
According to well-known Belarusian independent economist Sergei Chalova, banks are now put up the prices at which ' the people want to get rid of the currency '. ...
Moreover, the expert believes that the actions taken today - it's not a devaluation in the full sense of the word, but simply the removal of restrictions on the difference between the official rate and the buying and selling in exchange. ' The official exchange rate, we continue to set currency and stock exchange following the sale of 30% of mandatory foreign exchange earnings of exporters is very limited approximate ' the body ' range of importers, and it is almost entirely controlled, with him as long as nothing happens. This is not a devaluation, and the development of a system of exchange rates ' - emphasizes the C. Chalov.
dismal prospects.
Whatever it was, the first on yourself to feel the changes taking place exporters, the rate for which ( regardless of whether the incident to call the devaluation ) will grow by 60-70%. ' This will lead to higher prices, a deficit of goods, especially imports, the market shock. While in Belarus, there is a wide credit market, it will be a shock for him. You can also expect a slowdown in economic growth. Such a sharp depreciation of the currency will have only a negative impact on the economy ' - emphasizes the expert ' Investkafe '.
And the echoes. Willow and asset manager Nicholas FG BCS Solabuto. In his view, the consequences for the Belarusian economy will be disappointing. ... Another portion of the cash injection will help to mitigate the situation. And, of course, we can not exclude that, before a. Lukashenko will deliver some of the political conditions under which it will be forced to accept ', - the expert believes.
Much more somber tone paints with his colleague. Chalov, who believes that ' there are not a lot to stall the process in an unmanaged '. ' For a long time rested, wasted resources. What is happening recalls the summer of 1998. Russia - a very long time, too, rested, and, ultimately, it appears that resources do not have to defend the dollar, we had to let go of all. I think we are close to a point, it may be, the question of the month ' - said the Belarusian expert.
National Bank of Belarus, meanwhile, is trying to keep a good face on a bad. The official rate of Belarusian ruble, set by the regulator since May 12, virtually unchanged. Thus, the euro is set at around £ 4000.49. (0.02%), the dollar amounts to 3061 rubles. And one Russian ruble in Minsk officially give only 110.79 Br.
Julia Kuchkina, RBC.
http://www. charter97. org /.
On the subject:. Lukashenko took the bloggers.
On the subject:. Lukashenko drown in the blood of the people of Chechnya and the suit!.
On the subject:. ...
On the subject:. Colonel Vladimir bearded intelligence about the terrorist attack in Minsk.
On the subject:. Belarus loses VKontakte by order of Lukashenka ( Photo).
On the subject:. Lukashenko will not see a white light!.
On the subject:. The story of the victim 22. 06. 2011 in Minsk by riot police scum (Photo).
On the subject:. Talk-show ...
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
The end of Lukashenka: Monetary shock - it is in our
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment